Hurricane Dean has a pretty curtain track forecast at least for the 24 to 48 hour period. Beyond that there is some variation, but is still fairly predictable. I personally favor the track that trend to the right of the NHC forecast. I always felt that as the storms intensify, the forward motion added to the winds on the NE quadrant of the storms tends to push them to the right. Furthermore, as the stronger tropical systems (Cat 3 and up) get ready to make landfall, the land resistance on one portion of the storm adds resistance, and in most cases, because of the approach, means they'll trend to the right (of forward motion).
This storm will be very interesting to watch. At this time I don't anticipate intercept, and I'm not at all preparing for such. So if the track does shift significantly toward the northern US Gulf Coast, I'll be a little off guard (and behind schedule) for a hurricane intercept.
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