Roller Coaster Spring

Well, we've been in the upper 70s, event hit 80 degress (F) in some parts around the DC area. You would think spring is finally here......not ah.....you just got punk'd.

Starting later today, with some rain, temperatures are going to be cooling, and we are even looking at some snow possibly on Friday.

And although I dought it'll amount to anything, it is a southern storm, possibly even a Nor'easter, which usually means precipation amounts are higher than the forecasts. But it is March, and the ground isn't cold enough for any snow to stick. It may fall fast and furiously, but if it just melts on contact, what's the difference.

But I do have video camera ready just in case!

Practically a dud!

Well, in the end, practically nothing fell. Most areas never had the grass completely covered. It really was a matter of the snow evaporating from the ground as quickly as it was falling.

Never did take any pictures or videos for this one, not worth it at all. And next week we'll be up into the 60s. Spring is on the way now.

At least I can focus on Tornado season now.

Not much to count

The first of the snow fell around 4am this morning. However, at 1pm we still barely have enough to coat the grass. The streets are perfectly clear as are most of the sidewalks. I decided to go into work as normal and on the way down to Bethesda, noticed hardly anything was on the ground in the southern parts of Montgomery County, Maryland. I believe it may be a case of the snow is evaporating as fast as it's snowing.

Just in the last 20 minutes the snow fall rates have increased a little, but it'll have to keep up for a few hours like this to amount to anything. I hoping for something to photograph before it gets dark, buy at 1:30pm now, it's going to be hard going.

More snow...and in March no less

The DC region is expecting about 2" +/- of snow. The "clipper" system is moving in from the Midwest (Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc.). These storms don't tend to give us much snow...just a few inches. While they have a fair amount of moisture, they don't tap into the Atlantic Ocean or Chesapeake Bay like our storm they move in from the south or southwest. Plus the clippers move faster, so that also doesn't give us much chance to pill up the snow.

I will be video taping the little bit we get. The storm is coming in during the day, which should allow me plenty of daylight time to get the snow fall, and conditions. Plus, I want to get lots of people and vehicle shots for a snow production video later on.

I'll likely have a few more updates tomorrow, so keep checking back. And wish and pray for a suprise couple of extra inches of snow.

Jason F.

Early prediction on strength

From pictures I've been seaching on the net, it appears that some of the tornadoes may be rated F3 or possibly even F4 depending on the quality of the structure.

Remember, the F-scale is based on tornado damage....but it has to hit something to be rated. Although I don't think that will be a problem with this storm.

Strong tornadoes and deaths for today

As of around midnight March 2nd, 2007, there were 22 preliminary reports of tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia, as well as Missouri and Illinios. There have multiple deaths, with the highest concentration at a High School in Enterpise, Alabama. National News converage is high on this event, and there will be more storms tomorrow.

The entire east coast from Georgia upto Canada is intrenched in heavy rain. Flood watches are out just about everywhere. This has become a very, very large rain maker, and severe weather were warm and moist air are converging.

2007 season coming alive

I believe this may be the first "High Risk" of the season.

Today we are seeing a very special (and dangerous) set-up in the Southeast part of the US.

As of 4pm, tornadoes have already been reported.

This isn't the first set of severe weather, but this is I think the most intense so far. It also feeds into my current thinking that the severe weather season is shifting. Over the past few years, we have seen a noticable increase in severe weather in the early months of the year. It was never unheard of to see storms, but the frequency of storm, and the level of severity has increased. This may be due to long term climatology (so-called global warming), or just a natural cycle, that is more apparent with the increase in population in this region. Either wasy, it's significant and warrants further attention.

Rain, Flooding.....drought no more

Over the past four days, the DC-Balitmore region has recieved record rainfall. Some areas upto 11" since the it began. I've seen reports of rain rates upto 3" per hour. Around my home we haven't seen any flooding, as we are quite high in elevation. However, many areas throughout the region are flooded out.

There is more rain expected over the entire period from Monday through Tuesday evening. I will try to get out there this evening and film some of the flooding for stock footage. I will not be venturing far as I have many other items to tend to, but an hour to two should provide enough stock footage to cover the event.

It figures

Well, after a few days of rest in Dallas, visiting with friends, I started back toward Maryland, which was early. I did in fact cancel the trip early and descided to take the long way home (via the south). I've travelled through Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and now North Carolina. I've been hugging the coast, starting in Charleston, SC and examining the coast for this and future hurricane intercepts. I will likely stop somewhere near the South Carolina and North Carolina Boarder.

Since I have returned earlier there is a possibility I will return to the plains in late June or July. If there is a fairly predicatable week of severe weather withe negative tilt-system that isn't way up in Canada.

"Now Go Figure"! today there was a Moderate Risk out for Kansas Nebraska, and other parts of the plains. Athough this is based on increase severe threat from an MCS, it is just the kind of thing that adds to the "Foster Affect" I wonder if Maryland survived OK, while I was gone?

Next update will be tomorrow evening when I return home.

Chase trip likely to be cancelled early

After yesterdays fun, and unexpected surprise at the end of the day (after making a heroing drive though tough roads in NE NM), today is a relaxing drive toward Dallas, TX. The plan is to make a quick visit with friends and family for a day or two, then, unless some suprise turn around in the forecast, I'll be heading home. That's a full 10 days early. There appears (after looking at the GFS and ETA as far out as they go) that there is no hope for the rest off the chase season. This will be the worst year on record for May and early June. I may, since returning early, be able to return later in June/July.

With downtime, and high speed internet over the next few days, I will likely be able to complete the few updates needed to summarize this years chase expedition.

oh yeah, yesterday

BTW, yesterday was a successful chase day, in that I intercepted a supercell. It wasn't a very good one, but I did encounter a hail core, and actually may have added my first hail dent to the roof of the van. It's noticable, only if pointed to since it's above eye level on the roof.

I have some pictures to add to the website later. If tomorrow's target holds true for the same area, expect those website updates, since I'll have plenty of time to make the updates.

May 30th, a colorado day

It is 3pm mountain time here in Lamar, Colorado. We're chasing on the back side of the cold front, which we originally targeted (in the OK panhandle). Then after checking some data, decided to chase SE CO. Mid levels lost the instability. However that was at 11am (cst), now at 3pm, we see the midlevel recovering and wonder if it was premature to leave that target. However, we are here now, and we'll stick with Colorado for today. The good news is that Day 2 outlook is for the same area we are in, so not much driving tomorrow.

After that it may be time to wrap up the chase vacation. However I am here long enough for a possible pattern change, so we'll likely wait it out a few days before deciding to go home. I will drive as little as possible, either staying out west in TX, OK, or KS. Or may go to Dallas to visit family and friends.

600 miles to target

Lots of driving today. I will be driving on the west side of the trouph to take advantage of the wind direction. In the minivan it makes a difference, plus every bit of fuel economy saved is worth it.

One thing about fuel....the E10 (Ethanol 10%) blend I used in the past two fill-ups saw a noticable decrease in fuel economy. I will know the actual mpg later this morning when I top off, but it is likely droped to 18mph highway.....not good. I have managed to get upto 21 mph on flat terrain with favorable wind.

Back to chasing. Today's target is for Eastern Kansas. Right now, it doesn't matter where, because it's going to be anywhere I can get to them. I will try to stay on major routes, and get wifi updates from time to time. I also will be approaching the storms from the west, so if they initiate before I get there, I will have to move south to avoid any core punching.

I think today will be fairly good day.

Valentine, Neb. the place to be

Well it looks like the fight to get the shear to the west, and the moisture to the east together is going to happen right around Valentine, Neb. Seems like a few chasers are held up around here too. Havent' run into anyone yet.

Western Nebraska or SW S.Dakota

It's 12:00pm central time, I'm now in Valentine, Nebraska making my way west. I like skicking around the Neb. & S.Dakota border. Will be watching the satellite and other wx pages for initiation. Hope today might actually pan out. Tomorrow it's off to the east and down into Kansas. More on that later. First, lets get some supercell today (although they will be elevated in nature, and not much tornado risk).

Day 3 last post

I'm heading for Bassett, Nebraska, where tomorrow I will likely meet up with Amos Magliocco. Tomorrow target as of this time is western Nebraska.

Today was not a blow out after all. While I could not reach either of todays activity because of distance (affectively a 7 - 10 split), there was good storms in northern North Dakota, and in southern and western Texas. Also, the SPC seems to align itself with my observations of the long range forecast, in that beyond Sunday is not lost, and may in fact have me back in eastern Kansas. Sunday will bring more answers, so stay tuned.

chase expedition may end early

After what I though was some encouraging views from the GFS, it appears not to be. There are some slime pickings the next few days. After that it maybe another ridge. With that conclusion, I'd rather return to Maryland, the spend a whole week doing nothing. If somehow later June looks to improve, and there is a possible way for me to return in the second half of June, that could also be a possibility. Or I might just start focusing on hurricane season.

As far as my travels go, I'm in West Point, Nebraska at the moment. Last night was spent near Boonville, MO. I drven quite a bit over the past two days, but the next three days should be less than 400 miles average.

I'll have another update later tonight, with a few pictures and website updates.

Model runs better, will they hold out

the GFS is showing a little better activity for the 100 hour out forecasts. I am hoping they hold true and continue to improve.

Today the action, if any, is a little out of reach. Tim Marshall has mentioned CO, w.NE as possibles. Thats 800 to 900 miles away, not including chase mileage.

I thought I might have seen a possible in se KS, but it may have been the remenants from last nights activity. Either way, today is still mostly a travel day. I will be departing Cambridge, Ohio around 9am. I hope to be near St. Louis by 2pm.

Thunderstorms mount to nothing

As suspected, the line of storms that passed though Cambridge didn't mount to much. One good CG which I didn't film. It's raining, and the rains drops and cool air sound and feel nice, but otherwise, uneventful.

Going to do a Dialysis exchange and head off to bed.

Day 1 complete (almost)

Day 1 Storm Chase Expedition has found it's stopping point for the evening. We are in Cambridge Ohio, just off I-70.

There is a line of thunderstorms expected soon in this area. Cambridge won't see the severest part, but there is a tornado warning just north of us near Akron, Ohio. There may be some imagery obtained later tonight. I will have updates here. Don't forget to check out the website too, although updates are more frequent here.

The next two days will see no storm action (most likely). There is a remote, slim, outside chance to see something in Nebraska.....if we can make the mileage.

Saturday is dead, and the rest of the weekend and early week don't seem promising. Further forecasting will be done later tonight.