Jason is The Weather Warrior

New Blog

2009-03-30T17:39:00.001-04:00

For some time I have been blogging on my own site now.

Weather Warrior's Blog Page

Weather Warrior's Website

Chase likely today

2008-02-06T08:46:00.000-05:00

With the outlook being better then yesterday, and a 10% hatched, it is very likely to be a chase day for me. Later (near noon) I'll be taking a second look at the models, and decide were to go. If I can head north away from the city, that will be favorable because of traffic and congestion. I hope to be up near the PA border. However, if I have to be near the city, it will likely be a small chase area for usually in these situations, I get as close as I can, and then find a high spot (parking garages are usually good). Look for another update around noon to 2pm today. Reports and photos will be posted late tonight or tomorrow.

Severe Weather looking promising for Wednesday

2008-02-05T13:52:00.000-05:00

I've just done a quick review of the models and convective outlook and things look good for the possible first chase of the mid-atlantic season. Yes, it's very early for thunderstorms, as we usually are still watching out for snow at this point in the winter season. But right now I get any storms I can get snow or rain. Bottom line is I need content to post on the website.

Hurricane Charley/Celtic Ray

2007-12-14T19:14:00.000-05:00

Well, seems like a key part of the Hurricane Charley experience will be changing. It seems that the original owner of the Celtic Ray Public House, which is prominently shown in our award winning documentary of our experience during Hurricane Charley is about to suffer a major blow (pardon the pun). Kevin Doyle, the original owner, who kept "The Ray" open during the entire storm, and were we gathered after the storm to assess our condition and experience, has been forced out the business he started by a greedy and profit hungry owner. The full article featured in The Sun-Herald explains everything.

I will be sad to see the likely changes that the new owner will make now that he's forced Kevin from the business. I also hope that Kevin opens a new pub nearby that we can endorse and help him regain what he lost.

Wet but not wild

2007-12-13T14:31:00.000-05:00

It's just rainy and glummy once again. Temperatures should keep Maryland in the liquid precipitation zone. Just north in Pennsylvania, they might see some freezing rain, and a little snow.

But all eyes are already focused on this weekends events. With a lot of uncertainty with the snow/rain line, we could see no snow, or we could see upwards of 12 inches. I'm leaning toward the rainy mix, with short periods of snow. And what snow falls, will likely be hard to stick with the wet ground and roads.

Either way, I'm still at home in surgery recovery mode and won't be able to venture far to cover this one. I might be able to get out in the local area, but I won't be going more than 5 or so miles away from home.

Winter Weather Pages coming online

2007-12-09T15:06:00.001-05:00

Well after about a day and half, I'm starting to get the Winter Weather pages updated or created.

Most are from 2003 since that was such a big year for snow. More from 2004 and 2005 will be there soon, and 2006 and 2007 should not take long since neither year saw much snow at all.

Radio Show interview plans in the works

2007-12-08T19:15:00.000-05:00

Tentatively planned for next Tuesday at 8pm on IPR internet radio is my interview with Tony Pann and Justin Berk (WUSA ch9 Washington and WMAR ch2 Baltimore respectively).

I will also be adding a link to the WeatherTalkRadio.com website.

Today started out cloudy and then cleared up. It was still cold, but the bright sun really helped a lot.

I've also fixed the link to the Sunsets page.

More Winter weather, not as nice

2007-12-07T16:22:00.000-05:00

Today in the DC region we saw some more winter weather, but more of the sleet and rain mix. Was quite cold and somewhat windy. A good thick cloud deck kept the skies darker than normal, and the overall mood was not as nice as with the small snow storm from a few days ago.

There is a chance I'll be doing some Internet radio shows coming up with the folks at WeatherTalkRadio, so stay tuned for details on that.

First snow for DC region 2007/08 season

2007-12-06T16:34:00.000-05:00

While at the hospital in Baltimore recovering from Kidney surgery, The DC and Baltimore region received their first snowfall for the 07/08 winter season.

In the Baltimore area, about 3-4 inches fell. After being discharged and retuning home to Gaithersburg, I measured 4 1/2" in and around my home. Other newscasts reported about 5 inches in the Gaithersburg/Montgomery Village area.

Unfortunately I won't have many, if any photos to share since I'm stuck home recovering and can't drive or walk more than a few feet.

But at least it's early and there hopefully will be plenty of snow after I'm recovered and can venture out.

Finally and update, but I had a good reason

2007-12-06T16:27:00.000-05:00

Well, after some time without any updates to the website or blog, I'm finally back in action.

After battling some health issues with my dialysis, I now have good news. I've been transplanted.

On the day before Thankgiving, I was in surgery getting my Kidney transplant. Recovery will take about 5-6 more weeks, but I'll be at home doing updates to the website and blog.

Local Weather

2007-08-22T15:34:00.000-04:00

Locally speaking, the weather is damp, rainy and dreary. The Mid-Atlantic was in dire need of the rain, but the past two days have been very hard to get motivated if you are easily affected by the weather. The rest of the week is looking better with higher temperatures and increase sunshine.

Dean Landfall in Mexico, Again

2007-08-22T15:15:00.000-04:00

Dean has now made it's second landfall in Mexico, this time as a Catagory 2, much less than Catagory 5 Landfall in the Yucatan on Monday.

Dean will maintain a westward trek for a little while, and weaken significantly with the large land mass, higher terrain of the Mexican interior. Advisorys by the National Hurricane Center will likely stop prior to the system reamerging on the west coast. Many Carribean areas have been affected by this storm, and will likely stay in the news until the next system is born.

At the moment the tropics are not showing any immenient developing storms, but a few waves near Africa bare watching.

Dean Very Strong, but not coming this way.

2007-08-20T20:59:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Dean is sustaining Catagory 4 statis at the moment, but is likely to reach Cat. 5 before landfall. Although, looking at some water temperature maps, it seems the temperature drops a tad closer to Mexico. Strengthening is more likely early in a storms life, it takes a lot more energy to sustain high intensity. Since Dean has been maintaining Cat. 4, I am 50/50 on the chances to reach 5. More interesting is what is this storm going to do as it progresses inland. Mexico is going to get hit hard, and most of the models start to show a turn to the north and going right up the center of Mexico and heading toward the Unites States desert southwest. However, and more interesting if it happens, is a few model runs have the storm going nearly straight across Mexico and emerging on the west coast into the Pacific Ocean. If that were to occur, is it possible that it could reintensify into a Pacific Hurricane? It has happened before.

Hurricane Dean

2007-08-17T22:39:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Dean has a pretty curtain track forecast at least for the 24 to 48 hour period. Beyond that there is some variation, but is still fairly predictable. I personally favor the track that trend to the right of the NHC forecast. I always felt that as the storms intensify, the forward motion added to the winds on the NE quadrant of the storms tends to push them to the right. Furthermore, as the stronger tropical systems (Cat 3 and up) get ready to make landfall, the land resistance on one portion of the storm adds resistance, and in most cases, because of the approach, means they'll trend to the right (of forward motion).

This storm will be very interesting to watch. At this time I don't anticipate intercept, and I'm not at all preparing for such. So if the track does shift significantly toward the northern US Gulf Coast, I'll be a little off guard (and behind schedule) for a hurricane intercept.

Dallas Sunset in January

2007-08-07T21:56:00.000-04:00

In addition to active weather, I always find time to shoot other weather and environmental related shots. For example, sunsets, which are likely to be the general populations most favorite of shots. Whether a beach sunset, an ocean sunset, or city skyline, sunsets produces some of the most brilliant colors and deep contrasts.

This shot is of a sunset taken from the Union Tower in Dallas Texas (looking west of course). Union Tower sits on the edge of downtown Dallas, and not much exists in the foreground to disrupt the view.

On this day in January 1999, it was about 70 degress, which was very warm for January in Dallas. At the time of the picture however, as the sun set, and the temperatures dropped (plus being up 700 feet in an open to the elements tower) to around 55 degrees (f). It was difficult to get these pictures. The cold, the security fencing, etc. inhibited me from getting clear shots, but this one worked out.

The original pictures is much better quality. This was scanned many years ago on my first scanner, which didn't scan very well at all.

Another day of slow moving thunderstorms

2007-07-29T15:56:00.000-04:00

There appears to be no significant severe threat with these slow moving storms. I have to wonder, since I didn't watch them overnight, if this is the same cluster, that just finally moved that far south. I did drizzle here this morning, and now the storms seem to be intensifying with the afternoon heat. Not sure if I'll be going out to follow, get lightning shots or not. I will be keeping an eye on the radar however.

Night-time surprise

2007-07-28T22:48:00.000-04:00

Was out walking this evening for a little exercise, when I saw a flash or two of lightning. I figure we'd get a small shower here and there. After I came in, and waited for the The Weather Channel to show what was going on, got impatient with their programming, so I ran upstairs, and check the radar on the internet. I was impressed with the radar loop. A growing convective storm with a sizable diameter, especially for this late hour (10pm). A radar capture is show above. Nothing real impressive to get excited about, but the storm seems to generally be stationary, so NWS is calling for 3-5 inches in very, very localized area (around the City of Frederick). Some hail has also been reported with this storm. I'm in the next county down, and not likely to see anything for a little bit, if at all.

New format coming for Blog

2007-07-27T15:58:00.000-04:00

After talking with Jeff Gammons (Weathervine.com) I am going to attempt to redo the Blog so that instead of being hosted by blogger.com, it'll be on my site/web server.

I'll have more flexibility and use, plus it gets me better results with the search engines. No point of having a blog if no one is reading it.

It may be a few weeks, because it isn't the easiest task for me. Learning PHP and MySQL is new to me and hence I don't exactly know how long it'll take before it's up and running. Feel free to check the progress however, as the link will be:

http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog

Bill Proenza Congressional Committee Hearings

2007-07-23T22:18:00.000-04:00

I got a chance to watch some of the Committee hearings involving the dismissal of Bill Proenza as director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC, aka Tropical Prediction Center). I personally am not for or against the move (at the moment) since I'm not party to all the facts, or affected directly by it. However, I have been following the events recently and entertain any discussion on the topic.

Here's link on the news story
Sun Sentinel . com

SPC not they key

2007-07-22T16:26:00.000-04:00

Friday was the perfect example of why not to chase based on the Storm Prediction Center. Chasers have learned to do their own forecasts many times because simply chasing based on Convective Outlooks (Risk areas) is not productive.

Friday's 5% tornado risk area yielded only a handful of storms within the 5% bubble. There was a tornado up along the New York and Connecticut border (in Hurds Corner, Litchfield County, Connecticut).

In this area, all the action was south of DC and only managed a little bit of wind damage. I don't even know how the storm structure looked, although the radar wasn't too impressive when I did manage to sneak a peek.

I'll be waiting for the next storm, hopefully without and interrupting deadlines.

Of all days!!

2007-07-19T11:34:00.000-04:00

Of all days that I have to have a major deadline at work, and will be at work for 12 to 15 hours so that project is ready to go to the county permit office.

There is a slight risk with a 5% tornado risk from the DC area northward. Pennsylvania will likely see most of the action, but most areas in and around the 5% area will see good supercell storms. Northern Maryland is also my favored area to chase storms since it is not as populated as the DC region. I like to drive upto Interstate 70 in Frederick or Howard County and let the storms come to me, and from there follow them westward. Montgomery County is just too crowded, and too difficult to chase in. It's OK, if you go to a spot and watch a storm go by, but not to chase.

I'll likely try to sneek out while in Bethesda at my office to get some lightning shots, but who knows what will happen in the narrow views I have from that location.

Now we're back in the swing

2007-07-12T22:46:00.000-04:00

Finally picked-up a new professional camera. A Canon Rebel XT digital SLR. Took the first picture with it today of the wonderful Sunset shown above.

Also, we're getting back into the Media production and weather oriented business. I've been heavily focused on health issues and my architecture work as of late. But with a little over a month till the height of hurricane season, I'm getting more and more excited about severe weather.

(The picture today is a Sunset shot taken from the Montgomery Airpark, in Gaithersburg, Maryland).

It's starting to get hot in here

2007-05-15T14:15:00.000-04:00

It's not summer yet, but we're getting there. Temperature are expected to raise to 86 degress today. I nice and hot one. Well maybe warm. 90 to me officially makes it hot. However, dew points are modest to low, around the mid 50s, so not a lot of humidity to worry about.

I'm sure the next day or two will see and increase in humidity as the next front (and thunderstoms) approach the region. Tomorrow's high's aren't expected to reach into the 80s, but late day thunderstorms may still be a possiblity.

The last system that passed did so during the overnight hours and had already lost the daytime heating, which meant little convection to enhance the system. The incoming system, as the forecast graphic shows, will have lots of moisture with it, so event if there isn't a lot of strong thunderstorms, we could be looking at flooding conditions.

Andrea formed, and unpredictable

2007-05-10T23:42:00.000-04:00

Well as the post was being published last time, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) did if fact name the subtropical system. The first named storm for the season, which is looking to be another active season.

Originally it was thought the system would move toward the Florida coast, and make landfall, and fall apart. As of this hour, the system center is still off the coast and now looks to meander off toward the east. However, no more advisories will be coming from the NHC on Andrea, since organization is poor, and there is a severe lack of convection in the system.

Locally, we are looking at some possible thunderstorms overnight. If we see any, they'll be small and weak. Nothing to be excited about.

Is it a tropical storm or what??

2007-05-09T11:08:00.000-04:00

This is quite an interesting feature, looking very tropical in naturel. However, it if anything is subtropical.

The core is likely a cold core, which is completely different from tropical systems that are warm core. If you've ever been in a hurricane near the center, it's quite an intersting feeling when the rain and wind are coming down so fast, and it's completely white out conditions, and yet your hot as hell. The rain from a hurricane is warm like taking a shower at home.

The hurricane center is sending an investigating plane into the system sometime today. Depending on it's findings, we could possibly have a named system, although not likely. This would not be the first time a system was named before the June 1st official start to the hurricane season. Like 2004 when we had a very, very early April storm form in the Atlantic.

Locally, it looks like the rain will be held off until Thursday, much later than I originally thought. Seems the system out west it take quite a while to reach the eastern shores.

Active pattern out west, quite near home

2007-05-07T14:03:00.000-04:00

While High Pressure is in control today around the DC area, bringing us semi-warm temperatures and clear skies, the last few days out in the the Central Plains has been active chase weather.

A possible (most likely) F5 tornado touched down in Greensburg, KS this past weekend. May 4th and 5th saw multiple tornadoes with some being strong F-3 or higher.

Locally, we have been working with High pressure and although out temperatures have been holding to the 60s upto near 70, we've had mostly clear skies. Monday, and Tuesday look to follow this trend. However, the system that brought much of the storms out west will arrive in this area sometime in the short future (Tuesday late evening or Wednesday). It will be significally reduced in intensity when it arrives past the Appalachains.

Spring finally arrives in DC

2007-04-22T17:51:00.000-04:00

Today and Yesterday both saw near to or at 80 degrees. I did a lot around the house, painting, yard work, etc.

Hopefully with the increase temperatures will be increased humidity and Thunderstorm activity.

I officially will not be chasing in the plains this year. However, I will be active during the Hurricane season. I will be chasing locally a lot, as long as we have the storms to chase.

Snow and cold

2007-04-12T22:50:00.000-04:00

Well, it did snow the Friday before Easter, first time I can remember snow in April.

Cold temperatures continue throught this weekend, and some forecasters have mentioned the possibility of a few snow flakes here and there. No accumulation expected though.

Depending on how warm the temperatures get prior to the cold front pushing through, we may see a flash of lightning or two. This would be simular to our set-up a couple of weeks ago, were there was few thunderstorms, followed later by snow showers.

Folks around the DC area have mentioned the tension and depression felt by residents, who are impatiently awaiting the spring warm up. I have noticed a lack of volunteers for the spring events in my local amateur radio club. I'm thinking a lot of people are still in hypernation mode.

Winter Returns in force

2007-04-06T15:47:00.000-04:00

Cold Temperatures have returned to the Mid-Atlantic. Nightime lows are around 30 degress, with Friday looking like some snow flurries might show up.

We've had warm days into the 80s so to get thrown back into the 40s for daily highs is really a shock to the system. Winter really doesn't want to let go this year.

The main issue, aside from just being uncomfortable, is that many of the spring plants and trees have blossomed and now will be severely damaged by the overnight freezing. The Cherry Blossoms in DC have already been out, and they too could see damage. Of course, this also affects the agricultural interests in the mid-atlantic. Many of the fruit bearing trees may not survive the freeze. Also, this hurts the fisherman and crabbers. With the delayed warm weather, it will be hard for the crabs to reproduce and stunt growth.

And this doesn't seem to be a day or two event, but rather a week long (or longer) trend. Next week we warm a little, perhaps into the low 50s, whereas we should be in the Mid-60s.

Images and webupdates soon.

2007-03-28T23:29:00.000-04:00

BTW, I will have images and web updates as soon as I download and install some new web editing software for Vista. This new machine is bare attm.

Major Outbreak tonight

2007-03-28T23:26:00.000-04:00

Today is shaping up to be another early spring outbreak of severe weather. 50 plus tonadoes have been reported, and lots of rotating storms. Most of the storms are now in the dark, and it's extremely dangerous. Storms have fired along the western TX panhandle, up along the Kansas and Colorado boarder well into Nebraska. Jeff Gammons over at www.weathervine.com also has lots of updates, and is on the phone with chasers out there.

First thunderstorm of the season

2007-03-28T00:58:00.000-04:00

Today (March 27), we had the first thunderstorm in the area. After working hard all day in the yard (took the day off from the office), I was with playing with my dog and cat when the first clap of thunder startled us all.

It was the warmest day we've had so far this season reaching 80 degress in the 'burbs, and about 83 downtown. That warmth, and the a little bit of humidity compliments of the warm front, we had a few isolates showers. Funny enough, while the storm did provide a little bit of lightning (and one good CG), we ended up with no rain at my residence. Others to the south reported rain, and the cell grew to a decent storm when it reached the Baltimore area.

I look forward to chasing locally this year, as medical reason will likely mean I can't chase in the west this year. However, I am preparing for the Hurricane season, which appears to be an above active season.

Roller Coaster Spring

2007-03-15T14:39:00.000-04:00

Well, we've been in the upper 70s, event hit 80 degress (F) in some parts around the DC area. You would think spring is finally here......not ah.....you just got punk'd.

Starting later today, with some rain, temperatures are going to be cooling, and we are even looking at some snow possibly on Friday.

And although I dought it'll amount to anything, it is a southern storm, possibly even a Nor'easter, which usually means precipation amounts are higher than the forecasts. But it is March, and the ground isn't cold enough for any snow to stick. It may fall fast and furiously, but if it just melts on contact, what's the difference.

But I do have video camera ready just in case!

Practically a dud!

2007-03-08T16:07:00.000-05:00

Well, in the end, practically nothing fell. Most areas never had the grass completely covered. It really was a matter of the snow evaporating from the ground as quickly as it was falling.

Never did take any pictures or videos for this one, not worth it at all. And next week we'll be up into the 60s. Spring is on the way now.

At least I can focus on Tornado season now.

Not much to count

2007-03-07T13:23:00.000-05:00

The first of the snow fell around 4am this morning. However, at 1pm we still barely have enough to coat the grass. The streets are perfectly clear as are most of the sidewalks. I decided to go into work as normal and on the way down to Bethesda, noticed hardly anything was on the ground in the southern parts of Montgomery County, Maryland. I believe it may be a case of the snow is evaporating as fast as it's snowing.

Just in the last 20 minutes the snow fall rates have increased a little, but it'll have to keep up for a few hours like this to amount to anything. I hoping for something to photograph before it gets dark, buy at 1:30pm now, it's going to be hard going.

More snow...and in March no less

2007-03-07T01:38:00.000-05:00

The DC region is expecting about 2" +/- of snow. The "clipper" system is moving in from the Midwest (Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc.). These storms don't tend to give us much snow...just a few inches. While they have a fair amount of moisture, they don't tap into the Atlantic Ocean or Chesapeake Bay like our storm they move in from the south or southwest. Plus the clippers move faster, so that also doesn't give us much chance to pill up the snow.

I will be video taping the little bit we get. The storm is coming in during the day, which should allow me plenty of daylight time to get the snow fall, and conditions. Plus, I want to get lots of people and vehicle shots for a snow production video later on.

I'll likely have a few more updates tomorrow, so keep checking back. And wish and pray for a suprise couple of extra inches of snow.

Jason F.

Early prediction on strength

2007-03-02T00:31:00.000-05:00

From pictures I've been seaching on the net, it appears that some of the tornadoes may be rated F3 or possibly even F4 depending on the quality of the structure.

Remember, the F-scale is based on tornado damage....but it has to hit something to be rated. Although I don't think that will be a problem with this storm.

Strong tornadoes and deaths for today

2007-03-02T00:21:00.000-05:00

As of around midnight March 2nd, 2007, there were 22 preliminary reports of tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia, as well as Missouri and Illinios. There have multiple deaths, with the highest concentration at a High School in Enterpise, Alabama. National News converage is high on this event, and there will be more storms tomorrow.

The entire east coast from Georgia upto Canada is intrenched in heavy rain. Flood watches are out just about everywhere. This has become a very, very large rain maker, and severe weather were warm and moist air are converging.

2007 season coming alive

2007-03-01T17:04:00.000-05:00

I believe this may be the first "High Risk" of the season.

Today we are seeing a very special (and dangerous) set-up in the Southeast part of the US.

As of 4pm, tornadoes have already been reported.

This isn't the first set of severe weather, but this is I think the most intense so far. It also feeds into my current thinking that the severe weather season is shifting. Over the past few years, we have seen a noticable increase in severe weather in the early months of the year. It was never unheard of to see storms, but the frequency of storm, and the level of severity has increased. This may be due to long term climatology (so-called global warming), or just a natural cycle, that is more apparent with the increase in population in this region. Either wasy, it's significant and warrants further attention.

Rain, Flooding.....drought no more

2006-06-26T15:36:00.000-04:00

Over the past four days, the DC-Balitmore region has recieved record rainfall. Some areas upto 11" since the it began. I've seen reports of rain rates upto 3" per hour. Around my home we haven't seen any flooding, as we are quite high in elevation. However, many areas throughout the region are flooded out.

There is more rain expected over the entire period from Monday through Tuesday evening. I will try to get out there this evening and film some of the flooding for stock footage. I will not be venturing far as I have many other items to tend to, but an hour to two should provide enough stock footage to cover the event.

It figures

2006-06-05T20:15:00.000-04:00

Well, after a few days of rest in Dallas, visiting with friends, I started back toward Maryland, which was early. I did in fact cancel the trip early and descided to take the long way home (via the south). I've travelled through Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and now North Carolina. I've been hugging the coast, starting in Charleston, SC and examining the coast for this and future hurricane intercepts. I will likely stop somewhere near the South Carolina and North Carolina Boarder.

Since I have returned earlier there is a possibility I will return to the plains in late June or July. If there is a fairly predicatable week of severe weather withe negative tilt-system that isn't way up in Canada.

"Now Go Figure"! today there was a Moderate Risk out for Kansas Nebraska, and other parts of the plains. Athough this is based on increase severe threat from an MCS, it is just the kind of thing that adds to the "Foster Affect" I wonder if Maryland survived OK, while I was gone?

Next update will be tomorrow evening when I return home.

Chase trip likely to be cancelled early

2006-06-01T15:39:00.000-04:00

After yesterdays fun, and unexpected surprise at the end of the day (after making a heroing drive though tough roads in NE NM), today is a relaxing drive toward Dallas, TX. The plan is to make a quick visit with friends and family for a day or two, then, unless some suprise turn around in the forecast, I'll be heading home. That's a full 10 days early. There appears (after looking at the GFS and ETA as far out as they go) that there is no hope for the rest off the chase season. This will be the worst year on record for May and early June. I may, since returning early, be able to return later in June/July.

With downtime, and high speed internet over the next few days, I will likely be able to complete the few updates needed to summarize this years chase expedition.

oh yeah, yesterday

2006-05-30T17:08:00.000-04:00

BTW, yesterday was a successful chase day, in that I intercepted a supercell. It wasn't a very good one, but I did encounter a hail core, and actually may have added my first hail dent to the roof of the van. It's noticable, only if pointed to since it's above eye level on the roof.

I have some pictures to add to the website later. If tomorrow's target holds true for the same area, expect those website updates, since I'll have plenty of time to make the updates.

May 30th, a colorado day

2006-05-30T17:02:00.000-04:00

It is 3pm mountain time here in Lamar, Colorado. We're chasing on the back side of the cold front, which we originally targeted (in the OK panhandle). Then after checking some data, decided to chase SE CO. Mid levels lost the instability. However that was at 11am (cst), now at 3pm, we see the midlevel recovering and wonder if it was premature to leave that target. However, we are here now, and we'll stick with Colorado for today. The good news is that Day 2 outlook is for the same area we are in, so not much driving tomorrow.

After that it may be time to wrap up the chase vacation. However I am here long enough for a possible pattern change, so we'll likely wait it out a few days before deciding to go home. I will drive as little as possible, either staying out west in TX, OK, or KS. Or may go to Dallas to visit family and friends.

600 miles to target

2006-05-29T09:46:00.000-04:00

Lots of driving today. I will be driving on the west side of the trouph to take advantage of the wind direction. In the minivan it makes a difference, plus every bit of fuel economy saved is worth it.

One thing about fuel....the E10 (Ethanol 10%) blend I used in the past two fill-ups saw a noticable decrease in fuel economy. I will know the actual mpg later this morning when I top off, but it is likely droped to 18mph highway.....not good. I have managed to get upto 21 mph on flat terrain with favorable wind.

Back to chasing. Today's target is for Eastern Kansas. Right now, it doesn't matter where, because it's going to be anywhere I can get to them. I will try to stay on major routes, and get wifi updates from time to time. I also will be approaching the storms from the west, so if they initiate before I get there, I will have to move south to avoid any core punching.

I think today will be fairly good day.

Valentine, Neb. the place to be

2006-05-28T13:35:00.000-04:00

Well it looks like the fight to get the shear to the west, and the moisture to the east together is going to happen right around Valentine, Neb. Seems like a few chasers are held up around here too. Havent' run into anyone yet.

Western Nebraska or SW S.Dakota

2006-05-28T13:12:00.000-04:00

It's 12:00pm central time, I'm now in Valentine, Nebraska making my way west. I like skicking around the Neb. & S.Dakota border. Will be watching the satellite and other wx pages for initiation. Hope today might actually pan out. Tomorrow it's off to the east and down into Kansas. More on that later. First, lets get some supercell today (although they will be elevated in nature, and not much tornado risk).

Day 3 last post

2006-05-27T23:06:00.000-04:00

I'm heading for Bassett, Nebraska, where tomorrow I will likely meet up with Amos Magliocco. Tomorrow target as of this time is western Nebraska.

Today was not a blow out after all. While I could not reach either of todays activity because of distance (affectively a 7 - 10 split), there was good storms in northern North Dakota, and in southern and western Texas. Also, the SPC seems to align itself with my observations of the long range forecast, in that beyond Sunday is not lost, and may in fact have me back in eastern Kansas. Sunday will bring more answers, so stay tuned.

chase expedition may end early

2006-05-27T12:58:00.000-04:00

After what I though was some encouraging views from the GFS, it appears not to be. There are some slime pickings the next few days. After that it maybe another ridge. With that conclusion, I'd rather return to Maryland, the spend a whole week doing nothing. If somehow later June looks to improve, and there is a possible way for me to return in the second half of June, that could also be a possibility. Or I might just start focusing on hurricane season.

As far as my travels go, I'm in West Point, Nebraska at the moment. Last night was spent near Boonville, MO. I drven quite a bit over the past two days, but the next three days should be less than 400 miles average.

I'll have another update later tonight, with a few pictures and website updates.

Model runs better, will they hold out

2006-05-26T08:31:00.000-04:00

the GFS is showing a little better activity for the 100 hour out forecasts. I am hoping they hold true and continue to improve.

Today the action, if any, is a little out of reach. Tim Marshall has mentioned CO, w.NE as possibles. Thats 800 to 900 miles away, not including chase mileage.

I thought I might have seen a possible in se KS, but it may have been the remenants from last nights activity. Either way, today is still mostly a travel day. I will be departing Cambridge, Ohio around 9am. I hope to be near St. Louis by 2pm.

Thunderstorms mount to nothing

2006-05-25T21:33:00.001-04:00

As suspected, the line of storms that passed though Cambridge didn't mount to much. One good CG which I didn't film. It's raining, and the rains drops and cool air sound and feel nice, but otherwise, uneventful.

Going to do a Dialysis exchange and head off to bed.

Day 1 complete (almost)

2006-05-25T21:33:00.000-04:00

Day 1 Storm Chase Expedition has found it's stopping point for the evening. We are in Cambridge Ohio, just off I-70.

There is a line of thunderstorms expected soon in this area. Cambridge won't see the severest part, but there is a tornado warning just north of us near Akron, Ohio. There may be some imagery obtained later tonight. I will have updates here. Don't forget to check out the website too, although updates are more frequent here.

The next two days will see no storm action (most likely). There is a remote, slim, outside chance to see something in Nebraska.....if we can make the mileage.

Saturday is dead, and the rest of the weekend and early week don't seem promising. Further forecasting will be done later tonight.

Finally snow in the forecast....but is it for real?

2006-01-27T19:46:00.000-05:00

Been inactive on the blog. Website is down for a short while. Not much weatherwise in the mid-atlantic. Mostly warm temperatures for the season, and other than the small storms at the beginning of December, we haven't seen any snow.

That may change early next week, but it's a 5 day out forecast from TWC that makes me mention it, so it would count on it being true.....at least till we get to the 48 hour forecasts.

Snow is on the way (for Monday)

2005-12-04T12:53:00.000-05:00

Yeah, buddy! We got snow in the 24 hour forecast. And this system is approaching from the south....always good for snow accumulations in the DC area. The forecasts from Intellicast, NWS, and Weather.com indicated that the system will actually precipitate more to the south of the DC area, but snow accumulations may be more to the Southwest due to the snow/rain/ice mix line. The forecast indicated the the precipitation should begin late Sunday evening or early Monday Morning to the far southwest DC area (Roanoke,VA perhaps). Then as it moves closer over the period Monday the snow will be consistent for our area. There was sum uncertainty in the forecast (model disagree, typical for winter systems), however my experience with systems such as these is that the tend to put down more snow the forecasted. In this case, that means 3-6 inches with the DC area.

This will be a wet snow which will provide for very attractive imagery. Look for video and photos on the website soon after the storm initiates through the end of the storm. I will try to get some early images up early in the morning Monday, then take more images and upload again at the end of the storm. I will also have more blogs here throughout today and the tomorrow.

Winter Weather now upon us

2005-11-27T18:38:00.000-05:00

A few days ago we saw a little snow in the DC area. It began on Wednesday, November 23rd, 2005 around 7pm. The snow first was a hardly seen flurry. I was out with my friend Hernan when I looked out the car window and saw the small white flurries in the headlights of an adjacent vehicle. I was suprised to see the flakes, but a welcome sight for me. There wasn't any forecasts for accumulations so I continued home without much thought to prepare for imagery (video etc.). However, around 8:30pm the snow began falling vigourously and some was accumulating on the deck.

By 10pm the snow was still falling and there was about 1/2" on the colder surfaces. The sidewalks and roadways stayed clear as the air temperature never fell below freezing and never dropped below 37 degrees through the event.

At 12am I finally decided to venture out. The snow slowed and finished falling around 12:30am and almost immediately started melting. At first it was very picturesque with the wet snow sticking to everything. But the wind started up, from a very still calm the hours before to a decent brisk breeze that quickly blew all the snow off the tree branches. I did not take any pictures or video, I did however enjoy the short drive around Germantown and Gaithersburg.

So now the season has begun. If this is the pattern for the year, we should have an above average snow fall year. But it has been quite mild at first. To give an official forecast I need to look at climatogical history, and other factors like the NAO, and the El Nino/La Nina affects, etc. It should be soon for that forecast.

2005 Season still very much active

2005-09-28T19:32:00.000-04:00

I have just added the table to WeatherWarrior.net that shows that 2005 has two of the top five ranked hurricanes by strength as indicated by air pressure readings.

Ophelia was pretty much a non-event. I had a project so, as close as it was, I still did not chase. Rita, of course was the next big story since Katrina. Again, nearing my old hometown, south Florida was once again focused on round one of Hurricane Rita. Luckily the winds were not strong yet, and the area affected was isolated to the lower Keys. There was no direct hit with Rita on the Keys, but it came really close.

Rita then made it's way through the Gulf Coast, as did Katrina, but Rita was on a more westerly course. However, landfall was not much further west of Katrina, striking the TX and LA state line. It also only made it to Cat3 at landfall.

At this point, on the downslope of Hurricane season (although still active through mid-Oct.), I am focusing more on my video and stock imagery efforts for the winter season. I am also focused on my health.

At the current, I have just had surgery with the new "PD" catheder, that will allow me to travel and work more freely. This should also mean I will be able to start up my finances again.

Katrina biggest weather event for U.S.A.

2005-09-07T18:22:00.000-04:00

As news events continue to unfold, most of this country can now see the extensive damage a hurricane can cause. This is one of those 1% senarios that we thought we'de only here about on Discovery Channel. Now we're seeing it....and more than a million people are living it.

At some point I'm going to write a long essay on my view points of this storm. I will talk about my opinions from storm chaser perspective and also from a political perspective. This will be posted to the website rather than here (www.weatherwarrior.net). This is likely to be my last Katrina "specific" blog.

Katrina affecting my area (DC area)

2005-08-30T22:02:00.000-04:00

After a marathon news watching 48 hours (minus time to go to dialysis) of all the events surrounding Katrina, the storm has finally moved north enough to affect the DC metro area. As of this writing there is a Tornado Watch box over my location and most of central and north Virginia. One "preliminary" report from Fauquier County of a touchdown. Nothing like 2004 when the remenants of Hurricane Ivan passed through. I will be keeping an eye out overnight however.

After watching so much news about this Hurricane I have come to few conclusions: CNN rocks on coverage for this event, and The Weather Channel blows (pardon the punn). I was very disappointed in TWC's coverage of the event. With very little input from the crews they actually had out there, to not providing dynamic coverage of event and weather. While I understand they are not a 24 hour news channel, but a 24 hour weather channel (that also has to provide daily weather updates), I just felt that The Weather Channel did not show enough initiative. They quite simply relied too much on the way they've done it in the past, and did not recognize that they are competiting for airtime, coverage, reputation, and more. In the I would rank CNN as having the best coverage, MSNBC in second. FoxNews would come in third place and TWC in last place. If there were others, well they'de have to be ranked lower, cause I didn't even know they were covering it.

I heard from Amos Magliocco that Jeff Gammons and Chris Collura are safe and heading back to southern Florida. Jim Edds is staying behind, likely to film aftermath footage. I can't wait to see the footage.

Katrina making landfall

2005-08-29T10:09:00.000-04:00

Katrina is making landfall in the Mississippi delta and eastern New Orleans area. Slightly diminished in wind speed (around 145mph), the storm took a slight turn to the right a missed a direct hit to New Orleans.

Talked with Jeff at 2am and 9am. At 9am they were already getting significant winds (upto 100mph). They are located near the coast between Gulf Port and Biloxi. I suspect the footage to come out of this storm is going to be quite good.

The eye of the storm looks to go right over where the Weathervine team is located. Might finally get the "stadium" shot that has evaded hurricane chasers.

This is quite an event, and one to remember. I just wonder if the winds will have been as strong as Hurricane Charley from 2004. And I guess there is still a good chance I'll intercept that landfalling Catagory 5 since this once didn't make it at landfall.

Early AM

2005-08-29T02:14:00.001-04:00

I'm very sleepy at 2:15am eastern time.

I have not heard from Jeff as expected so I don't know where the team is for landfall. I will try around 4 or 5 am, a little before landfall is expected.

Katrina is still at Catagory 5 and the more time elapses with little degradation in strength. A few eyewall regeneration cycles have occured with sometimes mean the wind swath (diameter) increases. New Orleans is pretty much the bulls eye with areas just of the north east being the likely "ground zero"

I'm watching lots of CNN, TWC and MSNBC. All the coverage, even over the late/early morning hours is impressive. Wonder if I'll get any sleep.

Thats all for now, will update when I get updates.

Katrina sets sights on New Orleans

2005-08-28T21:39:00.000-04:00

Well my predition of Katrina moving further west of New Orleans is no longer valid. I can now see from the radar and satellite images that the ridge from the Texas area is pushing closer to Katrina and now we see a more northerly component to the track. In fact, depending on the forward speed overnight, we might see Katrina go a little east of New Orleans. Time will tell, and of course for overall safety reasons, all people from Louisana to the Florida Panhandle should realize that they will see dangerous, life threating conditions in their area. I am merly talking of position for chaser seeking "ground zero" aka the northeast eye and eyewall.

Katrina is expected to dimish a little, perhaps even as much as 30mph, down to a high Catagory 4. Most hurricanes can sustain their maximum conditions for more than a half-day. My personal suspision tell me that Katrina is going to be borderline Cat.5 about 155 mph at landfall. There will be some controversy likely because of the "official" landfall location due to the heavily varied coastline geography.

The rest of the Weathervine crew is in the Mississippi area. A good place to be in my opinion. A slight move to the west may be good, but they need to find a back-up shelter location should the need to travel back east. I will be talking to Jeff before midnight, and will update the blog after the call.

Staying Home

2005-08-28T18:00:00.000-04:00

I tried, but no such luck. I looked at flights, but the airports are closed. I looked at Rental Cars, but too expensive, and too risky even with the extra coverage. And the storm is too strong to bring in my own car. So now I am shifting my mode from possible intecept mode to team support mode. I will be providing as much necessary support for the Weathervine Crew and others as I can hopefully provide.

Katrina is a major hurricane at this point. It still is drifting west a little which I did have my suspitions early one. Winds are upto 175mph and gusts are exceeding 200mph. This storm is so strong I am a bit worried about the rest of the Weathervine Crew. They need to find secure structure, and since I'm not there, they don't have my professional architectural/engineering opinion (as in Hurricane Charley). If they don't find a good shelter, their safety will be greatly in jeapordy.

I will have multiple updates tonight and tomorrow.

Intercept?

2005-08-28T11:56:00.000-04:00

OK, I'm checking to see if I can make it to this storm. We're talking 175mph major catagory 5 storm with gusts upto and exceeding 200mph. This maybe the storm to be talked about for years to come. Winds in New Orleans are already upto 20mph.

I most likely won't be able to make the storm because logistics this late in the game usually mean a no-go. I am currently checking flights and car rental information.

Would have been on top of this better, but yesterday I went downtown (DC) to watch the National baseball team play, then went to the convention center for a free expo, then out to eat. I very fun day, but nonetheless distracting me from knowing how serious Katrina got.

Katrina moving Southwest...huh

2005-08-26T14:07:00.000-04:00

Katrina, Katrina. Well within the probable track....it has decided to take quite a little jog to the southwest. This manuever wasn't quite expected. I guess it was almost a good thing, since it stayed over the Everglades and away from population. The bad news about this little southwest movement is that it hit into Miami-Dade and Broward Counties more. I just hope my stuff in storage in Dade is OK?

The Weathervine crew (Jeff, Chris, and Jim) did intercept I believe in the Palm Beach area. We (as always) like to intercept the Eye at its northeast corner where the most significant winds are. Actually with the slow movement and a westerly track the maximum winds might have even been in the north and northwest portion of the eye. I will get information from Jeff soon.

Katrina is slowing moving into the Gulf of Mexico, and expected to turn to the right and move north in a gradual curve and head toward the Florida panhandle (yes, another system headed to the panhandle). However, I have my suspitions about the model tracks and predictions. The movement so far south from the initial models may have but the storm in a new storm pattern. I will look into this further later in the day as I am monitoring the movement. To early to give a predition as to a different heading, but I do have my doughts.

More later today!

Katrina heating up, about to make landfall

2005-08-25T21:08:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Katrina (weak Cat.1 ) is slowly moving toward the southeast coast of Florida. The area between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale will likely see the strongest winds from this system. Of course, it would hit this area, since I was living there just a few months ago, and can't travel there at this time (medical reasons). Another case of proof for the "Foster Affect".

I will be closely monitoring this storm the rest of this evening. I'm also hoping to get in touch with Jeff Gammons (Weathervine.com), Chris Collura (Sky-chaser.com) or Jim Edds (Extremestorms.com) who are in position for this storm.

The MTV awards show is (was) suppose to be this weekend in South Beach. It will be very interesting to see if that event continues. When I lived on South Beach in 2004 I noticed many folks there did not take Hurricane evacuations very seriously, and knowing how pushy these MTV folks are, they likely won't back down, and could become a costly mistake.

I've missed intercepting this storm, but still hoping to intecept a storm before the close of the 2005 season.

More updates, faster, easier!

2005-08-22T15:55:00.000-04:00

Since updating the website has become somewhat cumbersome at the moment, and many of my chase partners have a blog, I'm starting one now. This blog will focus on weather discussions, but a few comments about the current health or other comments may be made from time to time.

As you may have read from the front page of my websites, I was diagniosed with Kidney failure in April. I have moved back to Maryland to get the best possible care. While I miss Florida, I don't think I will be returning for a number of years.

The good thing about being back in Maryland....winter! Yes, I will once again be enjoying the cold temperatures and snow of the Mid-Atlantic. Once the winter season arrives I likely will be traveling throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to film and photograph winter scenes.

I am hoping that I will be able to intercept at least one major (Cat3 or higher) hurricane this season. Because of the medical condition and financial restraints that may not be possible, but I will be pushing hard for it should the opportunity arrise.

Jason Foster
The Weather Warrior